* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 37 40 42 44 46 47 48 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 37 40 42 44 46 47 48 48 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 3 3 7 9 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 -1 1 2 -3 -2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 171 158 208 213 210 219 220 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.5 26.7 26.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 135 134 140 132 130 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 66 68 69 68 64 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -35 -28 -20 -19 -26 -31 -21 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 68 61 36 26 35 36 50 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1137 1197 1265 1368 1428 1558 1733 1944 2162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.2 113.3 114.7 116.0 118.4 120.9 123.6 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 6 4 2 3 7 1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 111.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 20.9% 18.4% 17.1% 0.0% 16.7% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 31.4% 14.9% 9.9% 1.0% 12.9% 10.3% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 17.5% 11.1% 9.0% 0.3% 9.9% 8.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##