* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TERRY EP182021 11/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 25 24 24 27 29 31 33 35 35 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 25 24 24 27 29 31 33 35 35 36 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 4 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -3 0 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 256 248 238 237 214 245 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 135 133 130 136 138 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 59 59 58 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -32 -31 -31 -25 -15 -11 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 20 29 43 71 117 65 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1483 1574 1673 1775 1872 2079 2323 2564 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 119.0 120.3 121.6 122.9 125.7 128.5 131.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 2 1 0 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 117.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182021 TERRY 11/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1.9% 3.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.6% 4.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182021 TERRY 11/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##