* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP822022 01/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 66 65 60 56 55 48 44 47 56 64 63 50 35 36 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 8 9 6 4 11 7 6 -2 -2 5 18 15 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 284 289 288 291 295 293 301 298 286 281 260 226 199 184 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 122 123 125 129 137 140 143 144 148 147 146 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -52.1 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 7 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 12 13 14 15 15 14 12 16 24 28 28 27 32 34 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -32 -33 -21 -14 -7 -2 -17 -11 -23 -23 -16 -3 2 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -32 -33 -26 -43 -35 -35 -12 -20 -8 -1 -2 1 6 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -8 -14 -15 -17 -18 -6 -7 -8 -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 923 1013 1107 1196 1384 1568 1740 1911 2092 2107 2015 1926 1868 1798 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.2 12.5 11.0 9.6 8.5 7.5 6.4 5.5 4.6 3.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.0 164.2 165.0 165.5 165.9 166.7 167.6 168.8 170.1 171.4 172.7 174.0 175.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 11 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 17 21 34 70 107 96 66 57 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -22. -35. -45. -52. -57. -59. -57. -50. -46. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -23. -36. -47. -55. -60. -64. -66. -64. -60. -55. -56. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 163.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP822022 NONAME 01/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 60.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 800.8 to -82.5 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822022 NONAME 01/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##