* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP832022 02/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 51 50 51 56 68 88 85 74 61 52 53 50 46 46 43 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 7 4 6 -5 -15 -8 8 11 10 0 5 11 0 3 8 13 SHEAR DIR 337 327 317 300 295 307 316 307 307 304 304 309 303 316 314 324 323 SST (C) 23.5 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.4 24.4 25.1 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.5 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 97 99 97 96 96 98 101 104 107 105 113 121 121 122 129 137 129 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -48.3 -49.0 -49.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 29 29 31 35 34 38 37 36 34 32 32 34 36 34 34 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -59 -45 -43 -48 -39 -33 -14 -3 5 -13 -23 -33 -44 -46 -50 -45 200 MB DIV -49 -33 6 15 -20 -49 -48 -69 -45 -40 -48 -30 -13 -19 2 19 33 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 -4 -7 -20 -14 -24 -9 -3 -2 0 2 -5 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 617 600 590 583 576 493 349 132 51 192 358 536 702 879 1045 1209 1358 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.1 22.1 20.5 18.8 17.2 15.7 14.1 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.6 151.0 151.2 151.3 151.8 152.7 154.0 155.1 155.5 155.5 155.9 156.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 3 1 2 5 8 10 10 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -17. -39. -62. -79. -89. -92. -91. -88. -87. -91. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -15. -29. -51. -76. -95.-107.-114.-115.-117.-116.-118.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 149.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP832022 NONAME 02/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 800.8 to -82.5 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP832022 NONAME 02/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##