* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* AGATHA EP012022 05/29/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 90 99 103 103 102 92 80 68 62 60 58 58 58 58 59 60 61
V (KT) LAND 90 99 103 103 102 75 47 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 90 98 101 98 94 71 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 6 3 4 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 288 283 329 346 339 272 250 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 155 153 147 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 67 74 76 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 14 12 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 46 52 55 69 98 83 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 91 87 88 96 96 97 120 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 -4 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 238 207 179 131 84 -27 -78 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 98.8 98.5 98.2 97.7 97.2 96.1 95.1 94.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 49 40 31 21 15 10 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -18. -19. -20. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 13. 12. 2. -10. -22. -28. -30. -32. -32. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.0 98.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 15.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 10.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 10.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 6.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 9.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -8.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 2.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 65.4% 64.7% 53.7% 44.6% 37.6% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 80.9% 85.9% 80.9% 77.2% 64.4% 66.5% 21.0% 6.0%
Bayesian: 77.4% 59.8% 65.6% 60.9% 14.4% 19.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Consensus: 74.5% 70.1% 66.7% 60.9% 38.8% 37.1% 7.2% 2.0%
DTOPS: 55.0% 19.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012022 AGATHA 05/29/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##