* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ALEX AL012022 06/06/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 47 43 35 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 47 43 35 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 48 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 34 33 33 38 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 8 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 266 264 247 233 234 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.6 23.6 22.5 22.3 21.6 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 107 100 95 94 91 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 99 93 88 88 86 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 55 49 49 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 24 29 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 67 109 146 147 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 41 32 5 24 62 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 4 11 13 -31 10 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 981 1031 1037 1044 989 858 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.6 35.4 36.6 37.8 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 65.2 62.4 59.5 56.2 52.9 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 27 29 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -40. -44. -50. -53. -56. -58.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -8. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -45. -48. -53. -59. -65. -71. -73.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.7 65.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/06/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 49 46 47 43 35 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 51 48 49 45 37 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 49 45 37 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 42 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT