* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ALEX AL012022 06/06/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 47 48 40 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 47 48 40 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 45 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 34 37 41 55 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 13 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 265 244 237 231 215 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.6 22.3 22.3 21.5 18.5 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 101 94 94 91 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 94 88 88 85 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 48 50 49 42 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 36 39 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 71 118 151 148 142 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 27 3 40 73 83 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 10 14 -12 5 -50 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1018 1009 1003 907 815 967 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.9 37.1 38.6 40.0 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 62.2 59.1 55.9 52.5 49.0 42.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 27 28 30 31 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 25 CX,CY: 23/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. -21. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -23. -31. -38. -45. -51. -56. -64. -70. -73. -76.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -3. -2. -10. -19. -28. -36. -41. -47. -51. -58. -67. -73. -80. -82.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.7 62.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/06/2022 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 47 48 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 50 49 47 49 50 42 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 41 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 33 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT