* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP822022 06/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 34 30 28 25 23 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 38 34 30 28 25 23 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 32 29 26 24 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 10 17 32 32 26 22 20 25 31 30 23 27 34 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -4 -6 2 1 -2 0 0 2 6 7 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 117 129 123 51 55 80 76 99 122 179 228 244 283 296 1 23 34 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 141 144 146 148 149 149 145 146 141 141 140 140 143 142 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 3 2 2 2 4 7 700-500 MB RH 34 34 35 37 38 42 49 50 51 55 58 60 63 64 67 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -103 -113 -122 -125 -121 -125 -137 -140 -127 -113 -102 -111 -112 -111 -137 -139 200 MB DIV -4 -6 -60 -5 15 -31 -7 -1 -53 -6 -9 -5 -16 -3 -16 -24 -48 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 975 1006 1099 1212 1316 1481 1625 1757 1962 2178 2382 2485 2467 2378 2356 2405 2537 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.0 22.6 22.7 23.1 24.0 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 169.7 170.0 170.9 172.0 173.0 174.6 176.0 177.3 179.3 181.4 183.4 184.4 184.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 10 9 7 6 8 10 9 8 5 5 3 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 15 17 18 17 17 18 18 17 9 9 8 10 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 943 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -26. -27. -28. -31. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 6. 5. 5. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 169.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP822022 NONAME 06/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822022 NONAME 06/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##