* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWOE EP022022 06/14/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 60 68 71 68 63 60 53 52 51 50 50
V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 54 60 68 71 68 63 60 53 52 51 50 50
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 47 48 45 41 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 13 18 24 22 22 20 18 16 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 2 2 2 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 24 65 92 86 85 87 88 77 70 56 49 40 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.3 26.3 25.6 25.9 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 153 154 152 150 150 147 126 118 121 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 76 77 78 78 78 81 84 80 76 77 73 72 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 16 16 19 21 25 26 26 24 25 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 62 74 93 98 107 107 97 109 91 86 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 24 33 54 62 94 150 159 118 85 47 51 24 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 2 3 0 -3 -12 -4 -6 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 447 413 380 382 385 371 330 380 422 517 599 576 573 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 2 2 4 6 9 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 35 30 28 26 26 21 16 14 17 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -10. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 15. 19. 19. 16. 16. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 30. 38. 42. 38. 33. 30. 23. 22. 21. 20. 20.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 102.4
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 TWOE 06/14/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 3.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.9% 16.6% 15.3% 0.0% 15.1% 13.7% 12.7%
Logistic: 8.8% 33.7% 16.5% 8.8% 4.7% 10.8% 15.7% 8.3%
Bayesian: 0.3% 8.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8%
Consensus: 5.8% 20.4% 11.7% 8.2% 1.6% 9.0% 10.2% 7.3%
DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% 16.0% 12.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 TWOE 06/14/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##