* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 58 65 69 74 73 67 62 55 51 46 41 36 30 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 54 58 65 69 74 73 67 62 55 51 46 41 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 56 62 66 65 62 56 48 42 37 32 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 13 16 20 25 23 25 24 24 20 16 10 5 7 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 3 1 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 5 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 96 82 89 93 93 82 73 75 63 43 28 30 51 101 149 149 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 153 150 147 152 143 122 120 115 107 110 111 107 104 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 80 82 81 79 75 73 70 67 67 59 56 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 18 21 24 25 24 24 22 22 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 73 89 92 103 103 108 97 104 88 72 72 62 70 63 64 200 MB DIV 20 40 65 101 106 148 126 122 83 58 23 22 -8 -7 -21 -20 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 3 6 0 -6 -7 -5 -12 -6 0 -1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 403 378 352 348 345 339 336 408 445 559 588 588 596 652 761 814 815 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.1 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.4 104.6 106.4 108.1 109.9 111.5 112.8 113.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 5 7 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 24 23 22 18 14 20 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 25. 29. 34. 33. 27. 22. 15. 11. 6. 1. -4. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.42 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 25.6% 21.0% 19.7% 11.8% 18.6% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 18.5% 39.8% 21.1% 12.9% 7.7% 13.8% 26.4% 10.6% Bayesian: 4.2% 41.2% 19.4% 5.5% 4.0% 12.2% 3.8% 0.8% Consensus: 11.9% 35.5% 20.5% 12.7% 7.8% 14.9% 15.4% 3.8% DTOPS: 8.0% 28.0% 20.0% 15.0% 9.0% 21.0% 17.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##