* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 64 72 75 76 70 59 49 41 36 32 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 64 72 75 76 70 59 49 41 36 32 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 56 61 64 64 57 48 40 34 29 26 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 16 21 23 16 21 27 22 12 11 4 4 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 0 0 0 3 -3 -2 -3 -5 0 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 84 88 96 99 81 80 62 47 49 31 40 62 121 146 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.6 27.1 25.5 25.8 25.0 24.3 25.0 24.9 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 148 149 146 150 135 118 120 111 103 111 109 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 80 80 79 78 75 75 76 74 72 68 62 58 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 20 24 26 29 29 26 23 20 18 16 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 84 85 98 99 97 107 92 106 90 70 70 62 58 47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 77 87 127 129 112 93 66 48 23 14 0 -3 -23 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 1 3 -2 -5 -7 -5 -9 -4 0 -1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 287 286 285 274 285 350 444 569 548 546 578 676 739 761 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.4 102.7 103.0 103.4 104.7 106.6 108.5 110.5 111.9 112.9 113.8 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 6 8 9 10 9 6 5 5 5 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 17 17 11 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 16. 12. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 30. 31. 25. 14. 4. -4. -9. -13. -17. -17. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 102.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 23.4% 19.0% 17.6% 10.3% 17.2% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 17.7% 6.7% 3.7% 1.3% 5.2% 6.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 15.8% 9.7% 7.4% 4.0% 7.8% 7.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 12.0% 45.0% 29.0% 17.0% 15.0% 31.0% 26.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##