* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLAS EP022022 06/15/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 74 83 84 80 69 58 49 42 34 30 24 25 25
V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 74 83 84 80 69 58 49 42 34 30 24 25 25
V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 70 75 75 70 59 49 42 37 32 28 25 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 20 21 20 17 23 26 14 10 6 5 6 8 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 2 0 0 4 0 -7 -2 -2 -4 -2 1 1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 92 91 99 91 83 79 59 39 46 44 23 21 60 221 190 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.8 28.2 25.9 25.5 25.8 24.8 24.0 24.8 24.8 24.4 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 148 148 141 146 122 117 119 109 100 109 108 104 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 80 79 77 76 76 75 74 72 70 63 56 49 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 20 21 27 29 29 27 24 22 21 17 16 13 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 91 102 103 103 104 106 103 109 91 89 66 73 58 54 45 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 77 82 132 121 132 122 89 29 33 37 1 1 -8 -4 -21 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 1 2 1 -6 -10 -2 -12 -5 -5 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 268 269 267 253 251 284 329 466 527 517 519 569 654 719 776 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.3 19.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.4 103.9 105.4 107.1 109.2 110.7 111.9 112.9 113.9 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 7 8 10 9 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 16 17 16 15 7 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 13. 9. 6. 4. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
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TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 28. 29. 25. 14. 3. -6. -13. -21. -25. -31. -30. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 102.4
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 3.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 29.1% 21.7% 20.6% 12.0% 18.3% 13.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.4% 12.5% 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 2.8% 3.1% 0.6%
Bayesian: 3.9% 10.2% 7.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.6% 17.3% 11.4% 8.5% 4.4% 7.2% 5.7% 0.2%
DTOPS: 28.0% 53.0% 46.0% 34.0% 24.0% 37.0% 13.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##