* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/16/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 75 76 77 75 69 61 52 49 40 35 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 76 77 75 69 61 52 49 40 35 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 75 74 68 58 50 44 39 35 32 28 24 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 17 15 12 12 19 14 11 1 4 10 22 29 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 3 4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 73 69 54 42 31 51 73 54 1 103 181 164 151 150 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.5 26.2 25.5 25.6 24.6 24.7 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 149 149 125 117 118 107 107 111 108 108 107 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 78 77 76 76 74 71 65 61 54 52 48 47 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 24 25 25 27 24 21 19 19 15 15 12 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 78 77 81 72 89 79 72 54 64 47 58 47 52 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 86 98 95 54 19 28 30 12 0 -21 -12 -24 22 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -5 -8 -12 -3 -5 0 -2 0 0 2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 295 313 342 362 477 551 540 589 652 723 798 880 906 906 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.5 105.2 106.2 107.1 109.1 110.8 112.2 113.6 114.6 115.4 116.2 117.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 4 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -2. -2. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -6. -14. -23. -26. -35. -40. -48. -54. -61. -61. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.6 103.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 13.5% 12.4% 7.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 2.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##