* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032022 06/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 45 50 56 59 64 64 63 63 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 45 50 56 59 64 64 63 63 64 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 37 38 40 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 13 20 21 20 20 28 28 26 30 27 21 22 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 0 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 5 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 65 91 98 83 90 95 91 86 72 74 65 60 65 56 59 41 7 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 134 134 137 140 141 144 150 151 147 154 151 152 151 153 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.0 -54.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 84 86 85 87 88 90 91 90 90 86 85 81 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 20 20 20 21 25 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 51 64 64 69 74 71 89 87 104 108 104 103 97 76 81 75 83 200 MB DIV 106 85 90 114 121 100 144 127 136 129 131 118 153 119 120 105 85 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -1 -2 0 3 3 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 276 263 250 218 185 124 112 138 164 254 325 354 460 533 553 609 682 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.5 12.9 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.1 90.2 90.1 90.1 90.3 90.9 91.6 92.5 93.9 95.8 98.2 101.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 5 8 11 13 13 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 5 7 8 9 13 22 14 42 29 23 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 6. 6. 6. 9. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 20. 26. 29. 34. 34. 33. 33. 34. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 90.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 THREE 06/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.45 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 21.5% 17.2% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 30.4% 15.9% 11.6% 1.7% 12.7% 17.0% 24.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 17.5% 11.2% 9.1% 0.6% 4.3% 5.7% 8.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 THREE 06/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##