* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032022 06/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 38 39 43 51 56 57 58 58 62 66 69 73 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 38 39 43 51 56 57 58 58 62 66 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 36 34 33 33 34 35 34 34 36 41 48 60 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 22 24 21 23 22 23 23 24 27 22 14 12 14 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 0 0 1 0 0 -2 1 1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 108 111 102 110 106 83 77 76 81 68 73 67 58 40 31 9 56 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 130 130 131 135 137 142 147 143 146 150 150 149 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -53.9 -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 85 85 87 86 85 87 90 89 91 90 89 88 89 86 84 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 13 15 16 16 16 15 19 24 27 33 850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 70 84 81 83 86 94 90 92 101 117 99 102 90 101 113 200 MB DIV 50 79 95 76 105 128 114 131 85 113 114 154 127 128 124 121 130 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 -4 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 186 161 137 131 126 141 165 228 355 378 350 370 434 480 519 569 623 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.5 89.7 89.8 89.9 90.6 91.5 92.8 94.5 96.1 98.0 100.2 102.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 12 11 6 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 8 15 17 22 19 23 21 21 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -11. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 21. 22. 23. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 89.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 THREE 06/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 2.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 THREE 06/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##