* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 34 39 44 47 51 55 60 64 67 71 70 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 33 34 39 44 47 51 55 60 64 67 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 24 23 23 23 22 22 24 28 33 41 52 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 17 19 25 25 29 27 24 26 22 18 12 11 12 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 -1 1 1 0 2 0 -4 -5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 95 97 91 80 78 77 69 74 67 63 65 64 48 11 22 61 58 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.7 28.1 27.8 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.8 27.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 131 132 134 140 145 143 151 153 150 151 150 151 139 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -54.1 -53.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 85 85 86 85 87 87 91 91 89 87 86 86 83 79 76 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 11 12 14 14 14 15 17 22 26 31 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 67 83 89 80 82 77 72 60 51 52 82 69 92 79 98 112 122 200 MB DIV 89 111 138 153 143 105 148 104 132 117 152 130 134 95 115 102 107 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 3 2 2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 135 121 109 117 126 211 306 413 448 436 469 493 493 523 556 584 623 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.2 89.3 89.6 89.9 91.1 92.7 94.5 96.7 99.0 101.3 103.2 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 7 8 10 11 12 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 2 2 2 3 7 13 13 27 43 26 21 22 32 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -13. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 21. 25. 30. 34. 37. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 89.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##