* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLAS EP022022 06/18/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 42 39 38 34 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 42 39 38 34 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 48 43 40 37 34 30 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 14 10 7 8 1 2 11 14 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -3 -2 3 4 3 2 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 35 32 48 49 7 154 180 184 172 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.1 24.4 24.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 117 116 115 117 118 112 105 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 66 64 61 54 51 49 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 25 24 25 22 21 19 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 55 47 46 53 51 57 51 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 57 57 38 15 -11 -1 -16 -15 -1 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 -2 2 2 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 580 568 565 577 594 640 700 767 835 875 930 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.6 116.7 117.8 118.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -13. -16. -17. -21. -26. -33. -40. -48. -49. -49. -48. -46. -45. -44.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 110.5
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/18/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/18/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##