* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 27 31 35 40 45 48 53 61 65 65 69 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 27 31 35 40 45 48 53 61 65 65 69 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 29 34 39 46 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 25 23 20 26 21 20 24 20 14 14 14 16 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -7 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 93 96 103 100 94 78 72 72 76 78 74 43 30 18 359 49 356 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.0 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.3 27.5 28.2 28.3 26.8 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 139 140 145 144 151 151 149 137 138 145 145 130 117 115 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 80 83 84 84 88 88 86 87 87 85 83 80 77 75 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 11 12 13 13 13 16 21 26 28 34 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 65 78 93 87 73 87 75 76 80 91 84 78 103 102 118 113 128 200 MB DIV 70 84 125 133 109 96 86 78 98 105 119 114 92 102 100 73 50 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 3 3 1 0 -1 -2 -6 -8 -4 -2 0 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 74 106 122 164 216 334 391 394 422 464 487 496 477 469 483 524 443 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.6 91.0 91.8 92.5 94.1 95.8 98.0 100.0 102.1 104.4 106.1 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 6 11 16 29 23 28 9 12 21 22 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 11. 17. 21. 21. 25. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 28. 36. 40. 40. 44. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 90.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##