* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 30 33 37 41 47 55 63 67 70 68 70 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 30 33 37 41 47 55 63 67 70 68 70 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 34 38 43 49 56 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 20 18 22 23 20 21 21 15 15 13 12 10 6 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 93 102 97 92 79 72 58 64 77 76 68 46 18 348 333 133 267 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.1 27.4 28.6 27.9 26.2 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 142 144 145 146 151 151 143 134 137 149 142 124 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 5 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 83 86 88 88 89 89 87 87 83 79 79 77 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 16 21 24 27 29 33 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 83 103 91 79 78 69 57 58 85 69 86 80 94 89 94 89 95 200 MB DIV 89 114 114 119 120 70 97 87 141 152 153 122 117 106 83 53 63 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 61 101 123 177 233 392 409 414 425 449 464 477 489 491 498 524 455 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.9 91.5 92.3 93.1 95.0 97.0 99.0 101.0 102.9 104.6 106.1 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 7 8 15 20 25 34 17 7 11 27 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 12. 18. 21. 23. 22. 24. 25. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 22. 30. 38. 42. 45. 43. 45. 47. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 90.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##