* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 44 49 59 66 69 68 69 65 60 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 44 49 59 66 69 68 69 65 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 40 44 48 49 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 21 23 24 22 22 23 21 17 16 19 14 11 13 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -1 3 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 96 94 89 83 79 77 61 72 71 81 56 59 58 53 24 28 72 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.5 28.3 28.1 26.6 25.6 25.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 145 146 144 150 151 147 137 138 147 144 128 118 116 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 85 87 87 87 86 87 87 84 78 74 69 66 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 12 17 20 23 23 27 28 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR 95 85 77 87 85 55 64 62 86 80 82 104 100 117 91 106 60 200 MB DIV 106 91 89 99 113 81 70 122 149 135 165 121 78 84 57 66 6 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 4 2 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -8 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 90 126 175 234 308 378 400 420 462 484 506 532 552 565 560 475 439 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 91.7 92.5 93.3 94.2 96.2 98.3 100.2 102.3 104.0 105.6 107.1 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 9 8 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 9 12 16 29 25 26 11 11 21 17 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 13. 17. 20. 18. 21. 19. 16. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 19. 24. 34. 41. 44. 43. 44. 40. 35. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 90.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##