* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLAS EP022022 06/20/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 13 13 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 125 177 188 194 193 180 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.9 24.4 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 101 99 100 101 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 48 47 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 47 55 46 37 41 37 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -27 -21 2 1 6 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 4 4 1 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 531 560 591 622 655 686 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.6 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.6 114.1 114.6 115.0 115.9 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -26. -31. -36. -39. -41. -43. -45. -46. -46. -47. -48.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 113.1
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/20/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.64 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/20/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##