* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 39 49 60 67 71 78 80 83 78 75 67 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 39 49 60 67 71 78 80 83 78 75 67 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 37 40 43 46 49 53 58 61 61 57 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 17 19 21 16 15 10 9 7 6 3 12 8 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 68 65 68 66 68 72 77 51 24 11 9 28 124 114 106 110 162 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.3 27.3 26.1 25.2 25.0 25.2 24.8 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 148 149 152 149 145 147 136 122 113 111 113 109 93 91 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 84 84 83 84 85 82 82 80 76 74 71 72 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 14 12 16 19 20 21 26 28 31 31 32 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 36 26 22 54 64 58 67 62 89 83 98 98 116 110 105 200 MB DIV 43 59 70 83 101 127 144 131 103 73 90 95 114 92 33 -23 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 -3 0 -3 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 425 423 438 440 458 487 499 463 448 467 530 579 548 515 509 539 563 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.3 15.6 16.4 16.8 17.4 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.9 98.0 99.0 99.9 101.7 103.3 104.8 106.6 108.1 109.2 110.2 111.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 29 34 25 27 40 22 12 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 4. 8. 11. 12. 19. 20. 22. 20. 19. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 19. 30. 37. 41. 48. 50. 53. 48. 45. 37. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 95.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.9% 11.7% 10.7% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 14.7% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% Consensus: 1.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 0.0% 4.3% 0.7% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##