* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 42 51 60 67 74 77 81 81 75 69 64 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 42 51 60 67 74 77 81 81 75 69 64 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 36 38 41 43 44 47 50 53 54 54 49 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 15 16 23 19 16 8 10 8 4 4 11 5 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 3 4 8 5 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 1 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 64 66 57 56 50 63 73 39 25 351 7 23 126 138 122 177 172 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 26.9 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.1 23.3 23.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 149 152 150 149 147 147 132 115 113 117 113 94 97 85 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 82 84 84 84 85 85 84 80 79 72 72 72 73 71 69 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 14 13 15 17 19 20 23 25 28 31 30 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 22 29 35 39 48 44 64 71 81 92 91 106 108 119 101 200 MB DIV 76 89 119 110 112 139 152 134 108 86 80 70 86 21 16 -9 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 440 454 471 477 492 531 515 473 482 515 576 572 574 576 620 667 788 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.0 99.1 100.0 100.9 102.7 104.3 105.7 107.1 108.7 110.1 111.3 112.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 35 29 29 45 30 17 13 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 16. 20. 21. 18. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 21. 30. 37. 44. 47. 51. 51. 45. 39. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 96.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.04 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.1% 13.8% 13.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 17.7% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.2% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 4.8% 4.4% 0.0% 4.9% 1.5% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##