* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 53 57 65 69 75 78 82 82 79 73 66 59 52 46 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 53 57 65 69 75 78 82 82 79 73 66 59 52 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 57 59 62 65 66 65 63 58 51 44 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 21 22 24 22 12 16 11 13 9 8 5 5 6 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 3 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 57 52 53 60 64 53 22 15 23 37 53 64 23 52 162 151 159 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.1 26.8 25.7 25.2 25.3 25.5 24.2 23.8 23.1 22.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 151 149 149 145 131 119 113 115 117 104 99 92 85 80 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 85 82 85 84 83 82 82 76 71 67 63 66 63 64 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 18 19 21 21 25 27 32 34 35 34 32 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 22 36 35 34 49 52 76 75 105 96 114 117 134 124 120 98 106 200 MB DIV 122 140 141 141 160 142 90 62 101 58 79 39 23 -33 -38 -23 0 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -2 -3 -3 1 -3 -1 -5 -2 -5 -4 -9 -2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 497 516 534 539 525 524 519 553 647 653 618 627 699 728 778 891 1010 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.9 103.0 103.8 104.6 106.1 107.6 108.9 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.9 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 28 22 16 15 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 16. 23. 25. 24. 21. 17. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 17. 25. 29. 35. 38. 42. 42. 39. 33. 26. 19. 12. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 100.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% Logistic: 1.6% 7.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 18.5% 10.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 4.6% 11.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 6.2% 7.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 26.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0% 14.0% 13.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##