* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 45 48 52 60 69 79 80 77 72 65 60 53 48 40 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 45 48 52 60 69 79 80 77 72 65 60 53 48 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 46 50 55 60 61 59 54 48 44 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 23 21 20 12 8 6 12 17 12 9 6 0 3 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 3 1 1 0 -2 -3 -3 1 1 -2 1 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 49 46 59 62 57 32 352 15 90 77 81 68 21 151 208 163 147 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.0 26.4 25.2 24.8 25.2 24.4 23.9 23.3 22.1 22.0 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 147 148 143 126 114 110 114 106 101 95 83 82 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 84 85 85 83 84 84 83 75 72 68 70 67 66 60 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 22 21 24 28 32 34 33 32 31 31 29 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 38 51 43 53 58 55 69 80 94 106 104 115 117 121 102 98 87 200 MB DIV 137 126 134 157 162 150 112 115 121 75 55 24 15 -29 -26 -5 3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -6 0 -4 2 -1 LAND (KM) 473 480 489 480 473 472 483 525 604 609 583 607 671 739 855 968 1087 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.1 104.8 106.3 107.6 108.9 110.2 111.5 112.7 114.1 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 21 15 13 14 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 11. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 12. 19. 21. 20. 18. 14. 13. 11. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 39. 40. 37. 32. 25. 20. 13. 8. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.8 101.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 12.9% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% 5.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 7.0% 5.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##