* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 59 67 77 80 77 74 68 58 50 45 38 34 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 59 67 77 80 77 74 68 58 50 45 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 45 50 56 59 57 53 48 42 37 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 19 15 9 9 9 16 20 14 13 9 7 3 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -4 -2 0 1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 64 56 47 33 348 30 81 53 40 51 51 68 352 280 93 141 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.8 26.6 26.0 26.2 26.4 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.6 21.7 20.9 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 144 147 141 128 122 124 126 107 100 96 88 79 70 76 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 81 84 82 81 75 69 64 67 66 66 64 67 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 21 21 24 28 33 35 35 35 34 31 28 27 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 35 52 56 49 57 75 86 106 109 111 132 131 133 104 101 92 92 200 MB DIV 125 139 156 133 112 89 111 121 77 56 20 -14 -23 -29 -19 -7 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 -2 -1 -5 1 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 485 471 469 462 467 508 575 641 632 634 668 715 800 926 1025 1178 1377 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.2 105.1 105.8 106.6 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.2 113.6 114.9 116.4 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 10 10 13 11 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 12. 9. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 18. 24. 23. 24. 21. 16. 11. 8. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 37. 40. 37. 34. 28. 18. 10. 5. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 103.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.06 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 14.2% 13.0% 0.0% 15.2% 14.4% 10.9% Logistic: 0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 3.6% 9.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.4% 5.3% 4.6% 0.1% 6.3% 7.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 7.0% 21.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##