* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 54 61 72 78 83 79 77 68 60 52 46 40 36 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 54 61 72 78 83 79 77 68 60 52 46 40 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 55 61 64 64 60 54 47 41 36 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 11 10 10 11 15 19 11 3 7 1 4 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 48 30 26 350 357 57 57 15 32 35 19 260 118 206 162 243 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.6 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.2 23.6 23.2 23.1 21.1 21.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 142 144 147 139 125 119 120 116 104 98 94 94 73 76 86 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 84 85 84 82 77 73 67 70 65 65 59 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 23 27 33 35 39 38 38 35 33 31 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 44 41 60 65 85 92 105 111 131 124 134 115 112 93 78 200 MB DIV 131 154 144 115 121 80 143 122 104 64 14 -18 -7 -25 -10 -16 -15 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -7 0 -8 1 -3 0 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 503 468 444 441 448 491 537 611 565 576 671 736 848 1009 1152 1341 1544 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.5 105.0 105.8 106.6 108.1 109.2 110.5 111.8 113.4 115.2 117.0 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 10 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 12. 18. 25. 24. 24. 19. 14. 10. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 27. 33. 38. 34. 32. 23. 15. 7. 1. -5. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.6 103.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.8% 17.1% 16.4% 0.0% 17.2% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2.2% 7.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.6% 6.2% 5.7% 0.1% 6.5% 7.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 18.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 14.0% 20.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##