* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 52 53 62 69 74 75 70 67 60 51 44 38 34 31 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 52 53 62 69 74 75 70 67 60 51 44 38 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 48 50 54 59 62 61 58 52 45 39 33 28 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 10 11 5 11 15 13 14 4 6 3 4 1 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 2 -3 0 0 2 -1 -2 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 31 23 1 338 48 89 81 48 34 40 134 49 76 305 267 248 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.2 27.2 26.2 25.5 25.9 24.6 24.2 23.5 22.5 22.1 20.9 21.8 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 144 147 145 134 124 117 122 108 104 98 87 83 71 81 79 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 85 86 85 81 79 69 70 70 70 65 64 59 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 22 21 27 31 33 34 33 33 32 28 27 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 52 41 37 54 55 63 85 96 97 115 123 130 116 93 86 66 64 200 MB DIV 141 130 117 120 112 91 151 126 92 47 -9 -19 3 -22 8 -5 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -6 -1 0 -1 1 -5 0 1 LAND (KM) 476 464 465 475 471 514 574 596 564 607 700 785 917 1042 1187 1394 1663 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.0 105.9 106.7 107.4 108.5 109.7 110.9 112.5 114.1 115.8 117.8 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 14 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 18. 17. 14. 9. 6. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 17. 24. 29. 30. 26. 22. 15. 6. -1. -7. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 104.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.5% 18.0% 17.1% 0.0% 17.5% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 4.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.9% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% 6.4% 6.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##