* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 55 62 66 69 64 60 53 44 35 27 22 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 55 62 66 69 64 60 53 44 35 27 22 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 47 51 54 54 53 49 43 37 31 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 11 12 6 13 13 12 6 4 3 4 8 6 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 21 358 345 333 343 92 91 89 24 19 165 195 101 201 196 210 228 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.5 25.7 24.6 25.5 24.8 23.5 23.1 22.1 22.1 20.5 20.8 21.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 145 138 119 107 117 111 97 93 83 83 67 70 81 76 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 84 85 83 78 76 72 75 70 71 66 65 59 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 24 28 31 33 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 41 30 46 55 51 77 87 105 95 118 111 116 89 73 52 47 52 200 MB DIV 104 91 103 100 72 115 123 95 39 14 -17 -26 -16 1 -5 -4 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 -9 0 -9 3 -7 -3 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 380 374 379 391 421 487 530 521 513 597 664 788 926 1072 1277 1504 1737 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.8 109.0 110.0 111.4 113.1 114.9 116.8 118.8 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. -0. -5. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 16. 16. 13. 10. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 21. 24. 19. 15. 8. -1. -10. -18. -23. -27. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.42 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 21.2% 17.7% 16.3% 9.4% 17.1% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.5% 6.0% 5.5% 3.1% 5.9% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##