* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS AL792022 06/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 61 70 76 80 86 92 99 103 107 V (KT) LAND 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 61 70 76 80 86 92 99 103 107 V (KT) LGEM 15 16 16 17 19 21 24 27 31 38 44 49 54 62 71 83 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 11 13 10 11 8 3 1 4 6 6 2 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 2 0 0 9 8 9 2 2 -4 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 33 64 49 56 54 46 72 90 206 190 319 348 215 83 139 26 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.7 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 136 136 142 138 131 128 123 132 127 126 133 134 142 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 136 136 142 138 131 128 123 132 127 126 133 134 142 139 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -55.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 74 75 73 69 71 69 68 65 64 64 67 68 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 12 12 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 11 15 22 22 29 45 44 46 51 40 42 48 52 75 74 200 MB DIV 103 135 130 119 116 71 38 30 -1 14 66 55 23 45 68 77 43 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 0 0 3 0 4 1 2 0 -3 -2 -3 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 940 1067 1213 1356 1490 1540 1465 1408 1301 1010 811 703 563 302 344 340 234 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.7 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.8 25.3 26.9 28.4 29.8 32.4 35.0 37.9 41.0 44.7 48.5 52.3 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 15 17 19 18 19 19 19 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 16 12 18 22 11 13 9 16 10 9 17 18 31 32 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 22. 28. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 38. 46. 55. 61. 65. 71. 77. 84. 88. 92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 7.3 23.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL792022 GENESIS 06/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 44.0% 22.4% 14.6% 9.9% 16.9% 21.9% 32.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 10.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 7.3% 1.9% Consensus: 4.2% 18.1% 8.5% 5.1% 3.5% 6.3% 9.7% 11.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL792022 GENESIS 06/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 17 20 24 28 36 44 53 61 70 76 80 86 92 99 103 107 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT