* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 68 74 74 73 68 59 49 41 31 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 68 74 74 73 68 59 49 41 31 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 60 62 63 61 55 48 40 33 27 23 19 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 10 11 13 15 3 1 9 1 4 10 14 11 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 -7 -2 3 2 5 4 2 6 13 10 4 SHEAR DIR 5 26 81 88 89 51 65 57 138 212 248 214 193 244 235 243 239 SST (C) 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.2 25.7 25.6 24.3 24.3 22.0 22.3 21.1 21.1 21.7 22.0 21.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 121 116 112 113 119 118 105 106 82 85 72 72 78 81 72 64 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 78 78 75 67 67 64 62 58 55 51 51 45 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 25 27 27 31 30 32 32 30 27 25 22 19 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 74 82 82 99 95 107 118 125 96 93 84 78 60 46 27 200 MB DIV 89 86 120 131 97 90 61 33 -25 -25 -37 6 0 -8 -17 -10 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 -11 -1 -9 -2 -5 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 430 460 492 534 578 553 524 576 637 735 886 1031 1199 1358 1476 1542 1492 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.6 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.7 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.4 112.5 114.2 116.0 118.1 120.3 122.6 124.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 6 7 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 8. 12. 14. 12. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 24. 23. 18. 9. -1. -9. -19. -27. -34. -42. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 108.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.8% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 18.0% 43.0% 34.0% 22.0% 19.0% 26.0% 12.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##