* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CELIA EP032022 06/25/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 60 62 59 56 45 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 60 62 59 56 45 36 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 54 51 46 38 31 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 8 8 3 4 3 2 5 10 9 9 13 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 0 3 2 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 40 23 20 23 46 28 56 234 179 231 173 229 222 254 266 N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.5 25.9 25.7 24.4 24.6 22.8 21.5 20.8 21.2 22.4 21.1 21.1 21.6 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 117 121 119 106 109 91 77 70 74 87 73 71 76 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 72 69 70 65 63 61 60 54 51 48 45 40 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 29 30 32 31 32 27 24 22 20 17 15 13 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 80 76 72 101 96 107 91 93 80 68 44 30 7 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 110 87 74 82 53 54 -7 -7 -23 0 -8 -12 -17 -21 -34 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -5 0 -6 -5 0 1 3 4 9 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 512 520 496 508 531 584 655 787 941 1094 1280 1495 1694 1823 1954 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.4 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.3 112.1 112.8 114.3 116.0 118.4 121.1 123.6 125.9 128.5 131.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 12 11 12 13 11 8 6 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 1. -10. -19. -28. -35. -42. -48. -53. -53. -54.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.9 109.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.4% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 6.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##