* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/25/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 56 57 56 51 45 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 56 57 56 51 45 36 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 53 50 45 38 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 9 8 3 2 7 9 8 14 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -5 0 5 3 6 4 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 21 53 59 85 76 143 261 242 211 221 221 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 25.0 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.2 23.6 22.0 21.0 20.8 21.7 21.9 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 112 116 115 111 104 99 82 72 70 79 81 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 71 72 68 65 59 59 52 48 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 28 30 28 27 25 22 20 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 71 74 69 83 96 93 86 92 90 73 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 61 75 80 63 20 -6 -18 -20 10 4 -18 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 0 -3 -1 -5 0 -6 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 513 498 497 509 533 631 693 841 995 1161 1354 1578 1759 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.2 111.9 112.7 113.4 115.2 117.2 119.4 122.0 124.5 127.0 129.6 132.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -10. -19. -28. -36. -43. -51. -53. -54. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 110.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##