* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 49 48 44 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 49 48 44 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 43 38 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 4 5 3 2 7 7 13 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 7 5 7 4 5 10 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 30 70 90 103 119 274 242 186 221 214 205 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.5 24.1 24.4 23.6 21.9 20.9 20.5 21.2 21.8 21.6 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 107 103 106 98 81 71 67 74 80 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 69 66 63 57 54 47 44 39 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 28 28 27 28 25 22 19 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 70 79 80 90 75 79 71 61 46 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 48 40 14 0 -5 -18 -6 2 -7 -17 -12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 2 3 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 500 519 553 607 641 731 853 964 1124 1320 1517 1688 1823 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.1 113.9 114.7 115.6 117.5 119.6 121.8 124.3 126.8 129.0 131.2 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -30. -38. -45. -52. -60. -62. -64. -67. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.9 112.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##