* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CELIA EP032022 06/26/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 38 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 38 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 37 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 3 1 5 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 5 5 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 51 65 74 110 163 201 255 168 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.1 24.3 24.3 24.9 24.7 23.0 21.9 20.0 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 113 105 105 112 110 92 81 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 70 65 63 64 58 55 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 26 27 23 22 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 69 72 72 75 70 67 52 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 29 10 2 -8 -19 -9 -4 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 2 -1 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 552 595 648 672 697 803 919 1011 1169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.2 115.0 115.9 116.8 118.9 120.9 123.0 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -14. -20. -29. -36. -36. -37. -37. -39. -40. -41. -42. -43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.0 113.3
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##