* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/26/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 37 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 38 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 3 3 2 2 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 4 4 7 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 86 96 168 227 148 238 201 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.9 24.4 24.4 23.4 22.2 20.4 19.6 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 101 106 107 96 84 65 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 65 65 62 55 47 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 25 24 21 19 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 65 68 66 59 54 44 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 2 -9 -6 -20 -14 5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 2 1 0 -1 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 595 617 643 687 806 895 1026 1173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.7 115.5 116.5 117.5 119.5 121.7 123.8 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -23. -32. -40. -41. -42. -44. -46. -49. -50. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 113.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/26/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##