* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 47 42 33 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 47 42 33 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 47 43 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 6 1 6 5 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 82 135 293 51 251 202 235 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.3 24.4 23.4 22.6 21.7 19.8 19.7 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 105 107 96 88 79 61 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 61 57 53 44 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 24 23 21 18 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 63 63 64 59 55 43 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -14 -15 -1 -10 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 1 -2 1 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 608 628 671 729 811 908 1065 1192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.5 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.4 118.4 120.3 122.4 124.5 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -17. -19. -23. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -8. -17. -27. -34. -43. -44. -45. -46. -49. -52. -54. -57. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 114.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##