* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 41 44 51 59 69 77 85 93 102 106 109 111 114 115
V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 41 43 50 55 59 67 75 72 44 51 55 56 59 61
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 44 49 54 65 76 86 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 8 8 12 3 9 3 1 5 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 25 33 48 74 77 51 42 15 219 346 151 122 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 137 138 135 127 130 136 139 144 138 137 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 138 135 127 130 136 139 144 138 137 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 6 6 9 7 10 7 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 67 68 63 66 63 69 70 70 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 12 14 16 19 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 75 75 75 82 89 78 100 100 106 79 82 96 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 70 78 110 117 111 47 37 19 46 2 24 62 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 2 2 3 0 -4 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 373 338 240 60 0 82 24 101 289 277 -3 -18 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 54.2 56.2 58.2 60.4 62.7 66.5 70.4 74.3 77.9 81.1 83.8 86.4 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 21 22 21 19 19 19 17 15 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 25 24 31 13 6 3 6 13 16 25 12 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 34. 42. 50. 58. 67. 71. 74. 76. 79. 81.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.1 54.2
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 11.6% 7.7% 6.0% 4.3% 8.5% 10.6% 16.8%
Logistic: 1.7% 8.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4% 2.4% 6.1% 12.6%
Bayesian: 1.0% 4.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 19.1%
Consensus: 1.7% 8.2% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 3.9% 5.9% 16.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 41 43 50 55 59 67 75 72 44 51 55 56 59 61
18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 48 53 57 65 73 70 42 49 53 54 57 59
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 47 51 59 67 64 36 43 47 48 51 53
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 39 43 51 59 56 28 35 39 40 43 45
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT