* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 4 5 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 5 2 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 265 277 242 203 228 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.4 21.5 20.6 20.0 19.5 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 86 76 67 60 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 48 46 43 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 15 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 52 45 37 28 -3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -12 -2 -5 -11 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 5 4 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 780 819 851 900 956 1068 1174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.1 121.0 122.0 122.9 124.6 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -30. -33. -36. -38. -40. -44. -48. -53. -58. -63. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 119.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##