* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 44 46 53 61 70 78 86 94 100 105 109 112 115 116
V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 42 45 51 52 61 69 77 70 50 55 59 62 65 66
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 39 41 47 49 60 71 81 77 45 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 4 11 6 8 1 5 6 3 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 -1 -4 0 0 0 -6 1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 25 68 32 39 42 93 340 7 313 143 128 135 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 134 127 130 132 138 139 142 142 148 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 136 134 127 130 132 138 139 142 142 148 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 6 6 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 66 66 67 68 72 72 69 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 11 11 13 14 17 17 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 80 81 83 80 101 115 90 80 75 91 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 65 101 99 94 56 55 2 41 40 18 55 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -3 4 3 -1 3 -5 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 320 226 33 11 84 15 30 150 248 206 -32 11 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 56.5 58.6 60.7 62.6 64.6 68.7 72.4 75.7 79.1 81.8 84.0 87.0 90.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 19 17 17 15 12 13 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 26 32 11 7 3 5 8 19 17 17 14 10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 18. 26. 35. 43. 51. 59. 65. 70. 74. 77. 80. 81.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.6 56.5
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.8% 10.5% 8.5% 6.3% 10.6% 11.8% 18.3%
Logistic: 9.7% 31.5% 18.1% 10.9% 6.5% 21.6% 22.4% 29.0%
Bayesian: 4.4% 21.5% 7.0% 1.3% 0.5% 5.9% 9.5% 61.1%
Consensus: 6.4% 23.3% 11.9% 6.9% 4.4% 12.7% 14.6% 36.1%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 42 45 51 52 61 69 77 70 50 55 59 62 65 66
18HR AGO 35 34 38 39 42 48 49 58 66 74 67 47 52 56 59 62 63
12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 41 42 51 59 67 60 40 45 49 52 55 56
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 35 44 52 60 53 33 38 42 45 48 49
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT