* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 55 62 69 77 81 80 84 85 90 93 97 99
V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 44 48 46 55 62 70 74 49 45 46 51 54 58 60
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 40 42 42 51 61 71 77 52 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 10 10 2 7 5 1 5 4 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 2 1 -1 6 2 0 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 48 117 96 68 63 49 10 166 340 86 92 96 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 127 126 131 131 137 141 140 146 145 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 127 126 131 131 137 141 140 146 145 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 8 6 9 7 7 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 66 66 70 72 76 75 78 79 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 15 16 13 14 15 17 16 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 73 87 85 82 74 84 89 99 78 73 66 74 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 84 87 93 77 66 11 57 14 38 66 61 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 7 6 5 2 0 4 0 2 4 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 243 71 33 69 101 -12 122 233 285 93 -132 79 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 58.3 60.3 62.4 64.3 66.2 70.0 73.6 76.9 80.1 82.8 85.0 88.0 91.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 12 13 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 32 14 8 3 3 7 9 23 23 13 18 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -10.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -5. -12. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 34. 42. 46. 45. 49. 50. 55. 58. 62. 64.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.0 58.3
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.2% 10.3% 8.5% 6.2% 10.9% 11.9% 20.4%
Logistic: 7.4% 22.1% 9.9% 5.4% 3.9% 14.1% 33.7% 60.6%
Bayesian: 3.5% 37.0% 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 5.9% 2.4% 45.0%
Consensus: 5.3% 25.1% 8.7% 5.0% 3.5% 10.3% 16.0% 42.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 44 48 46 55 62 70 74 49 45 46 51 54 58 60
18HR AGO 35 34 36 40 44 42 51 58 66 70 45 41 42 47 50 54 56
12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 37 46 53 61 65 40 36 37 42 45 49 51
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 27 36 43 51 55 30 26 27 32 35 39 41
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT