* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 06/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 48 54 61 70 79 87 86 86 89 91 89 91 90 V (KT) LAND 35 41 45 49 51 51 58 67 76 48 40 41 44 46 43 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 42 44 46 46 53 63 74 49 42 47 53 57 62 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 19 14 9 7 4 3 11 8 16 14 13 10 13 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 3 3 -5 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 93 82 67 71 106 354 84 155 106 71 59 69 101 68 72 54 53 SST (C) 27.8 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 128 126 128 129 130 138 140 141 148 147 138 142 144 148 158 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 128 126 128 129 130 138 140 141 148 147 138 142 139 145 158 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 6 4 6 4 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 63 64 67 69 70 71 69 74 76 75 77 78 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 14 14 14 17 18 19 15 11 11 9 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 95 95 96 84 84 96 107 97 84 89 92 81 68 27 21 21 13 200 MB DIV 87 98 111 88 80 5 17 26 4 50 26 36 89 33 36 62 36 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 3 0 -2 2 1 0 2 -2 2 2 3 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) -19 28 89 106 8 65 199 289 82 -110 33 75 138 219 164 174 268 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.2 63.5 65.7 67.5 69.3 72.7 76.2 79.6 82.9 85.4 87.5 89.9 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 20 18 17 17 17 17 14 12 11 14 13 9 10 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 10 3 3 5 6 6 26 20 13 18 10 6 8 10 11 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 0. -6. -12. -13. -16. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 19. 26. 35. 44. 52. 51. 51. 54. 56. 54. 56. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.6 61.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.8% 9.0% 7.5% 5.3% 9.9% 10.8% 15.5% Logistic: 4.1% 21.0% 9.3% 6.3% 4.7% 14.3% 26.2% 47.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 8.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 3.6% 34.7% Consensus: 2.9% 14.3% 6.4% 4.6% 3.4% 8.2% 13.5% 32.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 45 49 51 51 58 67 76 48 40 41 44 46 43 45 45 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 44 44 51 60 69 41 33 34 37 39 36 38 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 37 44 53 62 34 26 27 30 32 29 31 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 34 43 52 24 16 17 20 22 19 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT