* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/30/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 54 59 66 70 72 73 74 73 78 80 86 90
V (KT) LAND 35 40 42 45 48 57 46 49 53 55 56 57 55 61 63 68 73
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 40 43 46 52 43 46 53 60 65 69 71 71 75 80 85
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 2 1 5 7 1 2 10 8 11 10 21 19 12 12 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 0 -2 1 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 134 63 327 172 177 351 70 97 120 102 102 85 75 55 46 38 51
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.2 26.7 27.9 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 141 140 142 143 144 127 121 137 146 142 137 137 141 138 136
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 141 140 142 143 144 126 119 137 146 142 134 133 138 137 135
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 4 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 64 67 65 67 70 71 71 72 77 77 76 72 71 70 68 62 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 16 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 8 9 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR 90 94 98 87 82 68 67 73 65 48 34 24 30 22 2 20 43
200 MB DIV 50 19 16 3 3 7 47 42 66 56 53 39 53 32 26 -17 -20
700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 1 3 3 5 5 3 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 0
LAND (KM) -23 85 130 250 247 183 -90 128 179 230 331 274 304 358 424 540 748
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 73.3 75.3 77.2 79.2 82.1 85.0 87.7 89.5 92.1 95.5 98.6 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 19 17 15 13 11 11 15 16 14 12 11 13 14 16
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 18 19 18 13 8 2 0 4 17 14 9 8 10 8 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -12. -16. -14. -14. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 24. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. 43. 45. 51. 55.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 71.4
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.5% 9.4% 7.9% 5.9% 10.5% 12.3% 21.6%
Logistic: 2.4% 13.7% 6.0% 1.7% 1.1% 8.2% 26.9% 57.1%
Bayesian: 1.0% 12.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.9% 8.8%
Consensus: 2.4% 13.5% 5.7% 3.3% 2.4% 6.9% 13.4% 29.2%
DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/30/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/30/2022 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 42 45 48 57 46 49 53 55 56 57 55 61 63 68 73
18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 51 40 43 47 49 50 51 49 55 57 62 67
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 46 35 38 42 44 45 46 44 50 52 57 62
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 37 26 29 33 35 36 37 35 41 43 48 53
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT