* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 07/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 49 56 63 65 71 71 76 79 85 87 93 93 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 38 37 43 51 53 59 58 63 66 72 74 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 34 40 46 52 58 64 71 77 79 81 81 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 2 3 3 5 7 6 7 11 10 14 12 9 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 1 3 0 2 2 4 1 2 -4 -3 -1 3 10 SHEAR DIR 187 244 328 61 261 97 136 141 115 88 69 37 21 29 357 354 256 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.4 28.2 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 142 140 139 137 130 141 150 149 146 135 128 129 128 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 142 140 139 137 130 141 150 149 146 132 122 121 120 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 7 4 6 5 7 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 77 75 78 81 81 79 74 74 74 70 67 64 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 13 13 13 14 12 13 10 11 11 14 15 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 82 80 80 67 65 80 74 54 41 29 40 35 24 38 59 62 53 200 MB DIV 31 23 28 46 30 52 91 110 89 118 105 77 56 29 -6 -5 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 5 4 6 5 4 0 -4 -7 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 241 206 212 114 0 22 156 162 260 206 227 280 324 399 511 602 637 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.5 80.0 81.4 82.6 83.9 86.4 88.7 91.4 94.3 97.3 100.4 103.1 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 12 12 14 15 15 15 13 11 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 15 11 10 6 2 5 11 12 11 8 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -6. -12. -11. -11. -8. -7. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 21. 28. 30. 36. 36. 41. 44. 50. 52. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 78.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 14.1% 9.2% 7.6% 5.7% 10.3% 12.3% 31.1% Logistic: 5.7% 43.9% 24.0% 11.0% 9.5% 27.7% 54.9% 82.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 19.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% 1.7% 86.4% Consensus: 3.6% 26.0% 11.6% 6.3% 5.2% 13.5% 23.0% 66.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 07/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 38 37 43 51 53 59 58 63 66 72 74 81 81 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 35 34 40 48 50 56 55 60 63 69 71 78 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 29 28 34 42 44 50 49 54 57 63 65 72 72 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 21 20 26 34 36 42 41 46 49 55 57 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT