* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022022 07/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 40 42 47 51 58 64 70 71 80 85 94 97 102 104 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 34 31 39 43 50 56 61 63 72 76 85 89 94 95 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 33 30 36 41 47 55 62 68 77 84 87 87 85 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 10 6 8 6 13 11 10 15 13 14 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 2 5 0 -1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 224 309 77 270 35 98 109 143 94 82 61 44 21 28 359 338 252 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 26.8 27.5 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 137 136 123 131 152 152 152 149 139 137 136 135 135 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 138 137 136 122 131 152 152 152 149 136 132 129 126 126 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 3 6 5 8 5 7 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 73 75 79 79 80 78 74 74 68 64 58 55 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 13 12 13 10 12 12 13 11 13 14 18 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 79 79 67 67 73 85 62 56 35 40 35 37 38 76 86 84 80 200 MB DIV 23 22 34 22 21 59 76 80 38 96 90 49 32 31 -9 20 1 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 3 4 3 5 1 -1 -1 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 1 LAND (KM) 198 195 73 -44 -33 158 193 220 223 200 251 290 376 522 613 594 616 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.7 83.1 84.3 85.5 88.1 90.5 93.2 96.1 99.1 102.1 104.8 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 11 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 10 7 1 2 10 14 13 13 8 7 6 6 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. -12. -9. -8. -4. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 35. 36. 45. 50. 59. 62. 67. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 80.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.8% 9.7% 8.3% 6.1% 10.3% 11.7% 20.4% Logistic: 7.5% 40.7% 21.9% 12.9% 12.0% 35.1% 61.9% 79.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 27.5% 5.6% 1.4% 0.6% 3.1% 3.3% 79.8% Consensus: 4.6% 27.7% 12.4% 7.5% 6.2% 16.1% 25.6% 59.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 07/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 07/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 34 31 39 43 50 56 61 63 72 76 85 89 94 95 18HR AGO 35 34 37 31 28 36 40 47 53 58 60 69 73 82 86 91 92 12HR AGO 35 32 31 25 22 30 34 41 47 52 54 63 67 76 80 85 86 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 22 30 34 41 47 52 54 63 67 76 80 85 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT