* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ATCFTEST CP882022 07/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 26 23 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 28 27 27 34 38 43 49 71 69 72 63 62 58 65 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 4 4 1 -3 -19 -19 -22 -13 -13 -13 -11 -8 SHEAR DIR 228 235 244 248 254 253 256 253 258 267 269 264 262 267 271 270 267 SST (C) 25.4 24.7 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.0 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 111 110 111 115 114 119 118 118 122 127 131 135 143 141 144 143 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 -56.6 -56.3 -56.5 -56.3 -56.5 -56.2 -56.4 -55.5 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 29 27 27 26 24 24 23 23 25 30 38 46 52 59 63 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 -18 -26 -31 -35 -47 -38 -37 -34 -30 -20 -28 -28 -25 -29 -33 200 MB DIV -18 -32 -19 -16 -5 -14 5 -1 10 7 0 -10 -15 15 7 16 5 700-850 TADV 15 13 14 13 13 15 11 10 3 0 -7 -1 -4 4 1 4 -4 LAND (KM) 1136 1014 871 717 567 303 138 50 73 106 334 560 817 1034 1244 1431 1608 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.7 23.3 23.5 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.7 146.9 148.2 149.5 151.9 154.1 156.4 158.5 160.8 163.1 165.4 167.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 32 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 397 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -24. -38. -52. -61. -67. -71. -77. -89. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -30. -37. -47. -58. -67. -73. -76. -79. -86. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 144.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882022 ATCFTEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882022 ATCFTEST 07/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##