* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 39 35 32 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 6 8 15 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 1 1 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 354 326 293 286 269 282 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.8 23.0 23.5 22.9 22.9 23.3 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 95 100 94 93 97 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 35 33 30 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 31 33 34 41 46 34 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -20 -6 -11 14 -1 -4 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 7 3 0 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1259 1371 1498 1647 1804 2110 1894 1590 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.8 124.7 126.5 128.4 130.3 133.7 136.7 139.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -30. -37. -41. -44. -46. -48. -50. -51. -52. -55. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 122.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/09/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##