* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DARBY EP052022 07/11/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 124 121 117 106 92 77 62 53 42 34 25 24 23 22 22
V (KT) LAND 115 122 124 121 117 106 92 77 62 53 42 34 25 24 23 22 22
V (KT) LGEM 115 120 119 114 108 93 79 65 53 42 34 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 5 0 1 5 9 21 25 27 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 3 5 4 5 3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 110 65 70 75 275 341 268 212 229 247 261 283 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.9 25.7 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.6 25.1 24.7 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 137 133 122 122 117 114 109 115 112 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 65 65 63 61 58 53 50 47 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 16 15 14 13 13 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 1 -4 1 5 -1 -2 -6 -8 -16 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 20 37 34 19 18 38 46 22 6 0 -29 -24 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 3 -2 0 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1691 1795 1905 1988 2068 2247 2172 1896 1583 1325 1110 827 478 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.1 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.3 125.7 127.1 128.3 129.4 132.0 134.7 137.2 140.0 142.4 144.5 147.3 150.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 8 5 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -16. -25. -35. -44. -51. -57. -61. -63. -65. -67. -70. -74.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -8. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 7. 2. -9. -23. -38. -53. -62. -73. -81. -90. -91. -92. -93. -93.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 124.3
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 559.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 41.8% 16.1% 24.8% 15.5% 12.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 21.4% 5.4% 8.3% 5.2% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 19.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##