* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DARBY EP052022 07/14/22 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 83 76 68 53 40 29 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 95 89 83 76 68 53 40 29 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 95 90 82 74 67 55 45 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 16 21 23 22 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 1 2 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 167 193 204 215 224 258 277 298 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.0 25.3 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 118 114 117 114 120 121 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 52 53 45 37 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 12 11 10 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 -12 -9 -3 -13 -14 -21 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 2 6 0 -14 -7 -38 -63 -59 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 1 3 1 0 5 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1726 1577 1428 1295 1162 895 596 352 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 138.9 140.3 141.6 142.8 144.1 146.7 149.8 153.0 156.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -39. -42. -44. -46. -48. -51. -54.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
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TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -27. -42. -55. -66. -75. -80. -83. -87. -88. -88. -86. -84. -84.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.0 138.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/14/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/14/22 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##