* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/18/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 69 67 63 57 48 39 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 67 69 67 63 57 48 39 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 67 64 58 50 41 33 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 13 9 6 6 9 4 2 2 2 7 9 8 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 0 -1 4 0 4 0 11 17 11 10 SHEAR DIR 344 347 346 350 351 56 19 4 322 343 330 77 183 231 198 211 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.0 21.7 21.3 21.1 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 133 126 117 107 93 78 73 71 77 77 77 80 81 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 75 75 73 75 70 69 64 61 56 56 50 47 42 37 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 24 27 28 28 26 23 21 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 17 22 23 41 50 55 54 39 35 22 29 26 28 32 40 200 MB DIV 75 40 48 51 51 63 31 3 -28 15 15 -14 -20 11 -3 -18 -33 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -8 -3 0 -1 2 0 1 0 4 1 2 1 6 -5 LAND (KM) 569 560 579 634 706 803 927 1011 1095 1208 1321 1458 1547 1687 1883 2008 1928 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.7 112.8 114.0 115.1 117.6 119.9 122.0 124.1 125.8 127.2 128.8 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 7 8 8 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -32. -37. -42. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -1. -3. -7. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -50. -57. -62. -69. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.8 110.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 16.7% 15.1% 14.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.0% 5.2% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/18/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##